{"id":1182,"date":"2026-09-09T11:19:28","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T11:19:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/uncategorized\/the-yen-is-moving-before-the-bank-of-japan-raises-rates\/"},"modified":"2026-09-10T07:49:55","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T07:49:55","slug":"le-yen-evolue-avant-que-la-banque-du-japon-ne-releve-ses-taux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/fr\/trading-ideas\/forex-trading-asset-classes\/the-yen-is-moving-before-the-bank-of-japan-raises-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Le yen \u00e9volue avant que la Banque du Japon ne rel\u00e8ve ses taux"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260909_05ea33.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1181\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260909_05ea33.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260909_05ea33-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260909_05ea33-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260909_05ea33-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260909_05ea33-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/>\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<style>body.single-post .cm-featured-image { display: none !important; }<\/style>\n\n\n\n    <meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n    <meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n    <title>Le yen \u00e9volue avant que la Banque du Japon ne rel\u00e8ve ses taux<\/title><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Le 8 septembre, le yen a atteint son plus haut niveau depuis sept mois face au dollar am\u00e9ricain, les op\u00e9rateurs pariant de plus en plus sur une hausse des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat par la Banque du Japon la semaine prochaine. Les march\u00e9s estiment \u00e0 environ 97 % la probabilit\u00e9 d'une hausse de 25 points de base, portant le taux \u00e0 1,25 %.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>La Banque du Japon n'a pas encore pris cette d\u00e9cision, mais les op\u00e9rateurs se sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 positionn\u00e9s en cons\u00e9quence. Les emprunts transfrontaliers en yens, qui donnent une id\u00e9e approximative de l'ampleur du \u00ab carry trade \u00bb, ont atteint le niveau record de 360 000 milliards de yens en mars. Les investisseurs empruntent des yens \u00e0 des taux relativement bas, convertissent ces fonds dans une autre devise et ach\u00e8tent des actifs offrant un rendement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 ailleurs.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Un fonds qui emprunte 1 milliard de yens, le convertit en dollars et ach\u00e8te des actifs am\u00e9ricains r\u00e9alise un b\u00e9n\u00e9fice correspondant \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence entre le rendement de ces actifs et le co\u00fbt de son financement en yens. Cette op\u00e9ration est rentable tant que ce revenu d\u00e9passe les pertes li\u00e9es au financement et au change. L'appr\u00e9ciation du yen augmente le co\u00fbt de rachat de la devise n\u00e9cessaire au remboursement du pr\u00eat, et une hausse suffisamment importante annule compl\u00e8tement l'avantage en termes de taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>L'effet de levier laisse moins de marge de man\u0153uvre pour amortir ce mouvement. Un investisseur disposant de fonds suffisants peut conserver un actif malgr\u00e9 une perte li\u00e9e au taux de change. Un fonds \u00e0 effet de levier, en revanche, risque d'\u00eatre confront\u00e9 en premier lieu \u00e0 un appel de marge, ce qui l'obligera \u00e0 vendre ses positions m\u00eame si l'investissement sous-jacent n'a qu'un lien t\u00e9nu avec le Japon.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Les march\u00e9s ont constat\u00e9 ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne en 2024. Une hausse des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat d\u00e9cid\u00e9e par la Banque du Japon a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 faire grimper le yen et a contraint les investisseurs \u00e0 se d\u00e9sengager des op\u00e9rations de \u00ab carry trade \u00bb \u00e0 effet de levier, provoquant une vague de ventes sur les march\u00e9s mondiaux. Les actifs hors du Japon ont chut\u00e9, car les investisseurs les avaient financ\u00e9s en yens.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Septembre 2026 s'annonce diff\u00e9rent, car les investisseurs s'attendent d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 ce que la banque centrale adopte une politique mon\u00e9taire restrictive. La Banque du Japon se r\u00e9unira les 17 et 18 septembre, et les op\u00e9rateurs ont fait grimper le yen avant la r\u00e9union plut\u00f4t que d'attendre que le gouverneur Kazuo Ueda et ses coll\u00e8gues annoncent leur d\u00e9cision. La devise s'est raffermie \u00e0 152,89 pour un dollar le 8 septembre, alors qu'elle s'\u00e9changeait \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 160 moins d'une semaine auparavant.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Acheter des yens uniquement parce que la Banque du Japon semble sur le point de relever ses taux revient donc \u00e0 miser sur une anticipation que la plupart des acteurs du march\u00e9 partagent d\u00e9j\u00e0. Si les responsables politiques proc\u00e8dent au rel\u00e8vement attendu de 25 points de base sans laisser entrevoir un resserrement plus rapide, les investisseurs ayant achet\u00e9 la devise au pr\u00e9alable pourraient prendre leurs b\u00e9n\u00e9fices. Une d\u00e9cision de maintenir les taux inchang\u00e9s entra\u00eenerait un r\u00e9ajustement des cours bien plus important.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Les op\u00e9rateurs sur le march\u00e9 des changes \u00e9valuent l'\u00e9cart entre les anticipations des march\u00e9s et les mesures effectivement prises par les d\u00e9cideurs politiques. Une hausse des taux ne se traduit pas automatiquement par un renforcement de la devise lorsque les investisseurs s'y \u00e9taient d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9par\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Les investisseurs japonais s'interrogent \u00e9galement sur les raisons qui les poussent \u00e0 d\u00e9tenir autant de liquidit\u00e9s \u00e0 l'\u00e9tranger. Pendant des ann\u00e9es, la faiblesse des rendements nationaux a pouss\u00e9 les banques, les assureurs et les fonds de pension \u00e0 se tourner vers les obligations \u00e9trang\u00e8res et d\u2019autres actifs \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9tranger. Les rendements des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat japonaises ont d\u00e9sormais suffisamment augment\u00e9 pour rendre les actifs nationaux plus comp\u00e9titifs. Fitch a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que ces rendements plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s pourraient inciter davantage d\u2019investisseurs institutionnels \u00e0 conserver leurs capitaux au Japon, tandis que Reuters a indiqu\u00e9 que le rendement des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat \u00e0 10 ans se n\u00e9gociait \u00e0 un niveau proche de son plus haut niveau depuis des d\u00e9cennies.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Un assureur qui vend des obligations \u00e9trang\u00e8res et rapatrie le produit de ces ventes cr\u00e9e une demande de yens sans pour autant d\u00e9nouer une op\u00e9ration de \u00ab carry trade \u00bb \u00e0 effet de levier classique. Un rapatriement suffisant renforcerait la pression d\u00e9j\u00e0 exerc\u00e9e par les investisseurs qui liquident leurs positions courtes sur le yen.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Le p\u00e9trole ajoute une complication suppl\u00e9mentaire. Le prix du Brent s'est rapproch\u00e9 de $100 le baril, alors que le conflit au Moyen-Orient perturbe les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9nergie. Le Japon importe la majeure partie des combustibles fossiles qu\u2019il consomme ; ainsi, la hausse des cours du p\u00e9trole augmente les co\u00fbts d\u2019importation et alimente l\u2019inflation nationale. L\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du yen compense en partie cette hausse en rendant l\u2019\u00e9nergie, dont le prix est libell\u00e9 en dollars, moins ch\u00e8re en monnaie locale.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/fr\/effet-de-levier-des-produits-derives\/operations-de-change\/le-carry-trade-sur-le-yen-guide-sur-les-taux-dinteret-leffet-de-levier-et-le-risque-de-change\/\">La Banque du Japon<\/a> Elle se heurte donc \u00e0 la fois \u00e0 une hausse des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat nationaux, \u00e0 un renforcement du yen et \u00e0 une augmentation des co\u00fbts de l'\u00e9nergie import\u00e9e. Les op\u00e9rateurs d\u00e9tenant des positions financ\u00e9es en yens doivent tenir compte de ces trois facteurs, car chacun d'entre eux modifie la rentabilit\u00e9 d'un emprunt \u00e0 faible co\u00fbt au Japon et d'un investissement \u00e0 l'\u00e9tranger.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Un \u00ab carry trade \u00bb rapportant quelques points de pourcentage par an n'offre qu'une protection limit\u00e9e face \u00e0 une devise dont le cours fluctue de plusieurs points de pourcentage en quelques jours. Selon Reuters, le yen s'est appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 de pr\u00e8s de 5 % par rapport \u00e0 certaines des principales devises utilis\u00e9es dans le \u00ab carry trade \u00bb rien qu'au d\u00e9but du mois de septembre.<\/span><\/p><p><span>Les 360 000 milliards de yens d'emprunts transfrontaliers en yens ne dispara\u00eetront pas apr\u00e8s une seule r\u00e9union de la Banque du Japon, mais la devise a d\u00e9j\u00e0 modifi\u00e9 le co\u00fbt de maintien d'une partie de ces emprunts. Les investisseurs qui ont emprunt\u00e9 des yens lorsque ceux-ci \u00e9taient plus faibles ont d\u00e9sormais besoin de davantage de dollars, de pesos ou d'autres devises pour racheter ces yens.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors que le yen affiche une certaine volatilit\u00e9 dans l'attente d'\u00e9ventuelles hausses des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat par la Banque du Japon, les march\u00e9s mondiaux r\u00e9agissent. Cet article examine le contexte historique, les avis d'experts et les implications futures de ces \u00e9volutions financi\u00e8res.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1181,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex-trading-asset-classes"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Yen Is Moving Before the Bank of Japan Raises Rates<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As the Yen shows volatility in anticipation of the Bank of Japan&#039;s potential interest rate hikes, global markets are reacting. 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