{"id":1240,"date":"2026-09-14T09:39:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T09:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/uncategorized\/markets-spent-months-waiting-for-rate-cuts-now-they-are-pricing-rate-hikes\/"},"modified":"2026-09-14T09:39:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T09:39:00","slug":"les-marches-ont-attendu-pendant-des-mois-des-baisses-de-taux-aujourdhui-ils-anticipent-des-hausses-de-taux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/fr\/market-analysis\/market-sentiment\/markets-spent-months-waiting-for-rate-cuts-now-they-are-pricing-rate-hikes\/","title":{"rendered":"Les march\u00e9s ont attendu des baisses de taux pendant des mois. Aujourd\u2019hui, ils anticipent des hausses de taux."},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1080\" height=\"720\" src=\"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260914_b0e7a4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1239\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260914_b0e7a4.jpg 1080w, https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260914_b0e7a4-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260914_b0e7a4-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260914_b0e7a4-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/levrata_image_20260914_b0e7a4-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\" \/>\n<figcaption><em>Photo de lonely blue (@lonelyblue) sur Unsplash<\/em><\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<style>body.single-post .cm-featured-image { display: none !important; }<\/style>\n\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>La R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale entame sa r\u00e9union de septembre alors que les op\u00e9rateurs estiment \u00e0 environ 87 % la probabilit\u00e9 d'une hausse des taux. Goldman Sachs et J.P. Morgan ont tous deux revu leurs pr\u00e9visions le 14 septembre et s'attendent d\u00e9sormais \u00e0 ce que la Fed rel\u00e8ve son taux directeur de 25 points de base. J.P. Morgan pr\u00e9voit \u00e9galement une nouvelle hausse en d\u00e9cembre.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Il y a quelques semaines \u00e0 peine, les investisseurs se demandaient encore quand aurait lieu le prochain cycle d\u2019assouplissement mon\u00e9taire. Le prix du p\u00e9trole au-dessus de $100 le baril, la hausse de l\u2019inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis et une nouvelle augmentation des rendements obligataires \u00e0 long terme ont chang\u00e9 la donne. La Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne a d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9agi. Elle a relev\u00e9 son taux directeur de 2,25 % \u00e0 2,5 % le 10 septembre et a averti que l\u2019inflation resterait sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 l\u2019objectif jusqu\u2019en 2027. La Banque du Japon aborde \u00e9galement sa r\u00e9union alors que les march\u00e9s s\u2019attendent \u00e0 un resserrement de sa politique mon\u00e9taire. Les trois grandes banques centrales sont donc confront\u00e9es simultan\u00e9ment \u00e0 l\u2019inflation, plut\u00f4t que de s\u2019orienter progressivement vers un assouplissement mon\u00e9taire.<\/span><\/p><h2><span>C'est le front-end qui a d\u00fb proc\u00e9der en premier \u00e0 une r\u00e9\u00e9valuation des prix<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Les march\u00e9s des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9agissent rapidement lorsque les op\u00e9rateurs modifient leurs hypoth\u00e8ses concernant la prochaine r\u00e9union de politique mon\u00e9taire. Le probl\u00e8me plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ral li\u00e9 aux portefeuilles se situe plus loin sur la courbe.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Une simple hausse de 25 points de base de la Fed ne d\u00e9termine pas \u00e0 elle seule la valeur d'un bon du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans. Les investisseurs s'int\u00e9ressent davantage \u00e0 l'\u00e9volution de l'inflation, aux emprunts de l'\u00c9tat et \u00e0 la dur\u00e9e pendant laquelle le taux directeur restera restrictif.\u00a0Les rendements am\u00e9ricains \u00e0 10 ans ont bri\u00e8vement atteint 4,9915 % la semaine derni\u00e8re. Les rendements allemands \u00e0 10 ans ont atteint leur plus haut niveau depuis 2011 apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9cision de la BCE.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Ces mesures remettent en cause l'un des postulat sur lesquels reposent les actions on\u00e9reuses : celui selon lequel la baisse des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9duirait progressivement le taux d'actualisation appliqu\u00e9 aux b\u00e9n\u00e9fices futurs. Une entreprise technologique dont la majeure partie des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices n'est attendue que dans plusieurs ann\u00e9es doit rivaliser avec des obligations d'\u00c9tat offrant aujourd'hui des rendements proches de 5 %. Les investisseurs en actions ont donc une exposition aux taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat, m\u00eame s'ils ne n\u00e9gocient jamais d'obligations.<\/span><\/p><h2><span>Le p\u00e9trole est pass\u00e9 d'un march\u00e9 ax\u00e9 sur les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res \u00e0 un march\u00e9 ax\u00e9 sur les taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Le Brent a bri\u00e8vement fr\u00f4l\u00e9 le niveau $110 la semaine derni\u00e8re avant de reculer. La strat\u00e9gie de trading directe semble simple : les perturbations de l\u2019approvisionnement font grimper le cours du brut, les entreprises du secteur de l\u2019\u00e9nergie en profitent, tandis que celles sensibles aux prix des carburants doivent faire face \u00e0 une hausse de leurs co\u00fbts. Les banques centrales viennent compliquer le tableau.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>La hausse des co\u00fbts du carburant se r\u00e9percute sur les chiffres de l'inflation, les frais de transport et les marges des entreprises. Celles-ci d\u00e9cident finalement quelle part de cette hausse elles vont absorber et quelle part elles vont r\u00e9percuter sur les clients. Les salari\u00e9s tiennent compte du co\u00fbt des produits de premi\u00e8re n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 lorsqu'ils n\u00e9gocient leurs salaires.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>La BCE avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 invoqu\u00e9 une intensification des pressions inflationnistes lorsqu\u2019elle a relev\u00e9 ses taux. Le p\u00e9trole influence donc les rendements obligataires tant par le biais de la r\u00e9action attendue de la banque centrale que par celui de l\u2019inflation globale. Un trader qui d\u00e9tient une position longue sur le brut et une position longue sur la duration exprime ainsi deux points de vue qui s\u2019opposent d\u00e9sormais l\u2019un \u00e0 l\u2019autre. La position sur le p\u00e9trole tire profit du choc d\u2019offre. La position sur les obligations \u00e0 long terme souffre si ce m\u00eame choc maintient les taux directeurs \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9.<\/span><\/p><h2><span>Les op\u00e9rations sur le yen deviendront plus difficiles si la Banque du Japon poursuit sa politique de resserrement mon\u00e9taire<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/fr\/idees-de-trading\/les-classes-dactifs-du-trading-forex\/le-yen-evolue-avant-que-la-banque-du-japon-ne-releve-ses-taux\/\">yen japonais<\/a> a atteint son plus haut niveau depuis sept mois avant les derni\u00e8res r\u00e9unions de politique mon\u00e9taire. Pendant des ann\u00e9es, la faiblesse des taux japonais a fait de la devise un source de financement naturelle pour les op\u00e9rations de \u00ab carry trade \u00bb. Les investisseurs empruntaient \u00e0 faible co\u00fbt en yens et pla\u00e7aient leurs capitaux dans des actifs offrant des rendements plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s ailleurs.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Cette structure perd de son attrait \u00e0 mesure que la Banque du Japon rel\u00e8ve ses taux. Un yen plus fort augmente \u00e9galement le co\u00fbt de la liquidation des positions existantes pour les investisseurs qui doivent racheter cette devise. Les op\u00e9rations de \u00ab carry trade \u00bb se d\u00e9nouent donc \u00e0 la fois sous l'effet du diff\u00e9rentiel de taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat et du taux de change.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Les march\u00e9s avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 re\u00e7u un avertissement lors des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes phases de raffermissement du yen. Des positions qui semblent diversifi\u00e9es entre actions, titres de cr\u00e9ance et march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents rec\u00e8lent parfois, en r\u00e9alit\u00e9, la m\u00eame exposition au risque de financement.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Un cycle de resserrement mon\u00e9taire plus rapide de la Banque du Japon rend d'autant plus important d'identifier cette exposition avant que la volatilit\u00e9 n'ait des r\u00e9percussions sur le portefeuille.<\/span><\/p><h2><span>Le prochain communiqu\u00e9 de la Fed aura des r\u00e9percussions au-del\u00e0 de la hausse pr\u00e9vue en septembre<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Une hausse que les march\u00e9s ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 largement anticip\u00e9e ne suscite pas automatiquement une r\u00e9action importante. L'\u00e9volution qui suivra la r\u00e9union sera plus r\u00e9v\u00e9latrice.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Si le pr\u00e9sident de la Fed, Kevin Warsh, pr\u00e9sente les mesures de septembre comme une garantie contre une nouvelle flamb\u00e9e de l'inflation, les march\u00e9s ont tout lieu de continuer \u00e0 tabler sur un assouplissement \u00e9ventuel en 2027. Un message indiquant que la persistance de l'inflation n\u00e9cessite plusieurs hausses de taux modifie simultan\u00e9ment la valorisation des obligations, des devises et des actions.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><span>Goldman table toujours sur deux baisses en 2027. J.P. Morgan pr\u00e9voit une nouvelle hausse en d\u00e9cembre prochain et a revu \u00e0 la hausse son estimation du taux directeur \u00e0 long terme, \u00e0 3,25 %.\u00a0Ces pr\u00e9visions divergent moins sur cette semaine que sur le niveau auquel les taux se stabiliseront par la suite. Les op\u00e9rateurs ont pass\u00e9 une grande partie du cycle pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent \u00e0 tenter d\u2019anticiper la premi\u00e8re baisse. Le march\u00e9 doit d\u00e9sormais int\u00e9grer dans ses cours la possibilit\u00e9 qu\u2019il ait cri\u00e9 victoire trop t\u00f4t face \u00e0 l\u2019inflation.<\/span><\/p><br>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les march\u00e9s ont connu un revirement majeur, passant de la perspective de baisses de taux \u00e0 celle de hausses potentielles. Cet article examine les implications de ces changements sur la finance mondiale.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1239,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-sentiment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Markets Spent Months Waiting For Rate Cuts. Now They Are Pricing Rate Hikes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets have undergone a significant shift, moving from expectations of rate cuts to pricing in potential rate hikes. 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