{"id":972,"date":"2025-12-28T19:58:37","date_gmt":"2025-12-28T19:58:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/?p=972"},"modified":"2025-12-28T20:08:59","modified_gmt":"2025-12-28T20:08:59","slug":"perspectivas-para-o-mercado-de-titulos-e-taxas-em-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/pt\/analise-de-mercado\/perspectivas-para-o-mercado-de-titulos-e-taxas-em-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectivas para o mercado de t\u00edtulos e taxas em 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Por que os t\u00edtulos e as taxas definem o sistema financeiro global em 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Os mercados globais de t\u00edtulos e taxas de juros representam a espinha dorsal das finan\u00e7as modernas. Com uma d\u00edvida pendente superior a 150 trilh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares em todo o mundo, os t\u00edtulos s\u00e3o o principal canal atrav\u00e9s do qual os governos financiam a pol\u00edtica fiscal, as empresas financiam investimentos e os investidores expressam suas opini\u00f5es macroecon\u00f4micas. Os mercados de taxas de juros s\u00e3o onde as expectativas de crescimento, infla\u00e7\u00e3o, pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria e risco pol\u00edtico s\u00e3o continuamente precificadas e reajustadas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Os mercados de renda fixa est\u00e3o passando de um ciclo hist\u00f3rico de aperto para um per\u00edodo de recalibra\u00e7\u00e3o estrat\u00e9gica. A infla\u00e7\u00e3o moderou-se em rela\u00e7\u00e3o aos picos anteriores, mas for\u00e7as estruturais como a geopol\u00edtica, a rigidez do mercado de trabalho, a seguran\u00e7a energ\u00e9tica e a expans\u00e3o fiscal sustentada impedem o retorno ao ambiente de taxas ultrabaixas da \u00faltima d\u00e9cada. Como resultado, os rendimentos est\u00e3o estruturalmente mais altos, as curvas est\u00e3o mais vol\u00e1teis e a atividade de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o permanece elevada nos mercados de t\u00edtulos \u00e0 vista, futuros, swaps e recompra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c<em>Para os investidores institucionais, os t\u00edtulos n\u00e3o s\u00e3o mais uma aloca\u00e7\u00e3o passiva. Eles s\u00e3o uma classe de ativos ativa, t\u00e1tica e cada vez mais complexa, em que o posicionamento entre vencimentos, regi\u00f5es geogr\u00e1ficas e instrumentos determina o desempenho.<\/em>\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Contexto geopol\u00edtico e macroecon\u00f4mico que moldar\u00e1 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Geopol\u00edtica e expans\u00e3o fiscal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A fragmenta\u00e7\u00e3o geopol\u00edtica continua a remodelar os mercados de t\u00edtulos soberanos. A competi\u00e7\u00e3o estrat\u00e9gica entre as grandes pot\u00eancias levou a aumentos sustentados nos gastos com defesa, pol\u00edtica industrial e investimentos em infraestrutura. A Europa, os Estados Unidos e partes da \u00c1sia est\u00e3o emitindo n\u00edveis recordes de d\u00edvida para financiar a seguran\u00e7a, a transi\u00e7\u00e3o energ\u00e9tica e a resili\u00eancia da cadeia de abastecimento dom\u00e9stica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Essa emiss\u00e3o elevada exerce press\u00e3o ascendente sobre os rendimentos de longo prazo e os pr\u00eamios de prazo. Os investidores exigem cada vez mais compensa\u00e7\u00e3o pelo risco fiscal, especialmente em vencimentos mais longos. A diferencia\u00e7\u00e3o do cr\u00e9dito soberano tornou-se mais pronunciada, especialmente na zona do euro e nos mercados emergentes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria e credibilidade do Banco Central<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Os bancos centrais entram em 2026 navegando por um caminho estreito. O Federal Reserve e o Banco Central Europeu est\u00e3o equilibrando o controle da infla\u00e7\u00e3o com a estabilidade econ\u00f4mica. O Banco da Inglaterra enfrenta sensibilidade fiscal. O Banco do Jap\u00e3o est\u00e1 gerenciando uma sa\u00edda gradual da acomoda\u00e7\u00e3o extraordin\u00e1ria. Esses caminhos divergentes alimentam negocia\u00e7\u00f5es de valor relativo entre mercados e aumentam a demanda por derivativos de taxa de juros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As orienta\u00e7\u00f5es futuras tornaram-se menos previs\u00edveis, aumentando a volatilidade nos futuros e swaps de curto prazo. Os mercados respondem agora de forma mais acentuada \u00e0 divulga\u00e7\u00e3o de dados, leil\u00f5es e comunica\u00e7\u00f5es sobre pol\u00edticas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Din\u00e2mica da infla\u00e7\u00e3o e do pr\u00eamio de prazo<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o permanecem est\u00e1veis, mas elevadas em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com a d\u00e9cada anterior. Fatores estruturais, como o crescimento dos sal\u00e1rios, as mudan\u00e7as demogr\u00e1ficas e os riscos geopol\u00edticos relacionados com o abastecimento, mant\u00eam os pontos de equil\u00edbrio sustentados. Este ambiente sustenta rendimentos de equil\u00edbrio mais elevados e aumenta a sensibilidade a surpresas inflacion\u00e1rias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">O que impulsiona os pre\u00e7os e as taxas dos t\u00edtulos em 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Os pre\u00e7os dos t\u00edtulos e as taxas de juros em 2026 s\u00e3o impulsionados por quatro for\u00e7as dominantes: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Primeiro, as expectativas em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 pol\u00edtica do banco central determinam os prazos curtos e m\u00e9dios. Os futuros e os swaps de \u00edndice overnight precificam cada divulga\u00e7\u00e3o de dados em tempo real.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Em segundo lugar, a din\u00e2mica da oferta e da demanda \u00e9 mais importante do que nunca. O aperto quantitativo, o aumento das emiss\u00f5es e as mudan\u00e7as nos balan\u00e7os dos bancos centrais afetam a disponibilidade de dura\u00e7\u00e3o.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Em terceiro lugar, os riscos geopol\u00edticos e fiscais influenciam os spreads de cr\u00e9dito e a diferencia\u00e7\u00e3o soberana. A instabilidade pol\u00edtica e os ciclos eleitorais est\u00e3o cada vez mais refletidos nos rendimentos.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Em quarto lugar, as condi\u00e7\u00f5es de liquidez e a estrutura do mercado moldam a execu\u00e7\u00e3o e a volatilidade. As plataformas eletr\u00f4nicas melhoraram a transpar\u00eancia, mas a liquidez continua sendo epis\u00f3dica durante per\u00edodos de tens\u00e3o, refor\u00e7ando a import\u00e2ncia dos mercados de recompra e de derivativos.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Os 50 principais t\u00edtulos e n\u00edveis de taxas<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dados reais de 2024, intervalos de 2025, previs\u00f5es para 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-cm-color-3-color has-cm-color-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-cm-color-1-border-color has-fixed-layout\" style=\"border-width:1px\"><thead><tr><th>#<\/th><th>Instrumento<\/th><th>Rendimento em 2024<\/th><th>Gama 2025<\/th><th>Previs\u00e3o para 2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>Tesouro dos EUA 2 anos<\/td><td>4.3%<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 4,51 TP3T<\/td><td>3,81 TP3T a 4,81 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>Tesouro dos EUA 3 anos<\/td><td>4.2%<\/td><td>4,11 TP3T a 4,61 TP3T<\/td><td>3,91 TP3T a 4,91 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>Tesouro dos EUA 5 anos<\/td><td>4.1%<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 4,61 TP3T<\/td><td>3,81 TP3T a 4,71 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>Tesouro dos EUA 7 anos<\/td><td>4.2%<\/td><td>4,31 TP3T a 4,81 TP3T<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 5,01 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>T\u00edtulo do Tesouro dos EUA a 10 anos<\/td><td>4.2%<\/td><td>4,51 TP3T a 4,81 TP3T<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 5,01 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>Tesouro dos EUA 20 anos<\/td><td>4.5%<\/td><td>4,61 TP3T a 4,91 TP3T<\/td><td>4,31 TP3T a 5,11 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7<\/td><td>T\u00edtulo do Tesouro dos EUA a 30 anos<\/td><td>4.6%<\/td><td>4,71 TP3T a 5,01 TP3T<\/td><td>4,21 TP3T a 5,21 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8<\/td><td>Bund alem\u00e3o 2 anos<\/td><td>2.9%<\/td><td>3,01 TP3T a 3,41 TP3T<\/td><td>2,7% a 3,6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9<\/td><td>Bund alem\u00e3o 5 anos<\/td><td>2.5%<\/td><td>2,71 TP3T a 3,11 TP3T<\/td><td>2,41 TP3T a 3,31 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10<\/td><td>Bund alem\u00e3o a 10 anos<\/td><td>2.4%<\/td><td>2,61 TP3T a 3,01 TP3T<\/td><td>2,31 TP3T a 3,21 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11<\/td><td>OAT franc\u00eas a 10 anos<\/td><td>2.8%<\/td><td>3,01 TP3T a 3,41 TP3T<\/td><td>2,7% a 3,6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12<\/td><td>BTP italiano a 10 anos<\/td><td>4.1%<\/td><td>4,41 TP3T a 4,81 TP3T<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 5,01 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>13<\/td><td>Bono espanhol a 10 anos<\/td><td>3.3%<\/td><td>3,6% a 3,9%<\/td><td>3,21 TP3T a 4,21 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14<\/td><td>T\u00edtulo do Tesouro Brit\u00e2nico a 5 anos<\/td><td>3.9%<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 4,41 TP3T<\/td><td>3,6% a 4,6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15<\/td><td>T\u00edtulo do Tesouro Brit\u00e2nico a 10 anos<\/td><td>3.5%<\/td><td>3,81 TP3T a 4,01 TP3T<\/td><td>3,31 TP3T a 4,31 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16<\/td><td>JGB japon\u00eas a 5 anos<\/td><td>0.4%<\/td><td>0,4% a 0,6%<\/td><td>0,41 TP3T a 0,81 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>17<\/td><td>JGB japon\u00eas a 10 anos<\/td><td>0.6%<\/td><td>0,6% a 0,8%<\/td><td>0,5% a 1,0%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18<\/td><td>Canad\u00e1 10 anos<\/td><td>3.2%<\/td><td>3,41 TP3T a 3,71 TP3T<\/td><td>3.1% a 4.0%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>19<\/td><td>Austr\u00e1lia 10 anos<\/td><td>3.8%<\/td><td>3,91 TP3T a 4,21 TP3T<\/td><td>3,71 TP3T a 4,51 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>20<\/td><td>China Gov 10 anos<\/td><td>2.6%<\/td><td>2,51 TP3T a 2,81 TP3T<\/td><td>2,41 TP3T a 3,01 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>21<\/td><td>TIPS dos EUA 10 anos Breakeven<\/td><td>2.2%<\/td><td>2,31 TP3T a 2,71 TP3T<\/td><td>2.0% a 3.0%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>22<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Tesouro dos EUA<\/td><td>5.2%<\/td><td>4,91 TP3T a 5,31 TP3T<\/td><td>4,51 TP3T a 5,51 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>23<\/td><td>Notas da zona euro<\/td><td>3.7%<\/td><td>3,61 TP3T a 4,01 TP3T<\/td><td>3,21 TP3T a 4,21 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>24<\/td><td>SOFR<\/td><td>5.0%<\/td><td>4,81 TP3T a 5,21 TP3T<\/td><td>4,51 TP3T a 5,41 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>25<\/td><td>SONIA<\/td><td>4.1%<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 4,41 TP3T<\/td><td>3,81 TP3T a 4,61 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>26<\/td><td>Euro OIS 2 anos<\/td><td>3.5%<\/td><td>3,6% a 3,9%<\/td><td>3,21 TP3T a 4,11 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>27<\/td><td>Fundos Federais Efetivos<\/td><td>5.3%<\/td><td>5,11 TP3T a 5,41 TP3T<\/td><td>4,51 TP3T a 5,31 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>28<\/td><td>Ag\u00eancia dos EUA MBS<\/td><td>5.6%<\/td><td>5,41 TP3T a 5,91 TP3T<\/td><td>5,21 TP3T a 6,21 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>29<\/td><td>IG Corporativo dos EUA<\/td><td>5.3%<\/td><td>5.2% a 5.6%<\/td><td>5.0% a 6.0%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>30<\/td><td>Alto rendimento nos EUA<\/td><td>8.5%<\/td><td>8.0% a 9.2%<\/td><td>7,81 TP3T a 9,81 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>31<\/td><td>Euro IG Corporativo<\/td><td>4.2%<\/td><td>4,31 TP3T a 4,81 TP3T<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 5,21 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>32<\/td><td>Alto rendimento do euro<\/td><td>6.7%<\/td><td>6,81 TP3T a 7,51 TP3T<\/td><td>6,51 TP3T a 8,01 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>33<\/td><td>EM Soberano Hard<\/td><td>6.8%<\/td><td>6,51 TP3T a 7,41 TP3T<\/td><td>6,21 TP3T a 8,01 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>34<\/td><td>EM Soberano Local<\/td><td>7.2%<\/td><td>7.0% a 8.0%<\/td><td>6,51 TP3T a 8,51 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>35<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Tesouro indexados \u00e0 infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>3.0%<\/td><td>3,21 TP3T a 3,61 TP3T<\/td><td>2,8% a 3,8%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>36<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos da SSA Europa<\/td><td>3.9%<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 4,51 TP3T<\/td><td>3,71 TP3T a 4,81 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>37<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos cobertos UE<\/td><td>3.6%<\/td><td>3,71 TP3T a 4,21 TP3T<\/td><td>3,41 TP3T a 4,61 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>38<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos municipais dos EUA<\/td><td>4.1%<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 4,51 TP3T<\/td><td>3,81 TP3T a 4,81 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>39<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos Verdes Globais<\/td><td>4.0%<\/td><td>4,11 TP3T a 4,61 TP3T<\/td><td>3,81 TP3T a 4,91 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>40<\/td><td>Notas com taxa flutuante<\/td><td>5.4%<\/td><td>5.2% a 5.6%<\/td><td>4,81 TP3T a 5,81 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>41<\/td><td>Taxa Repo GC<\/td><td>5.3%<\/td><td>5.1% a 5.5%<\/td><td>4,71 TP3T a 5,61 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>42<\/td><td>Eurod\u00f3lar 3M<\/td><td>4.7%<\/td><td>4,51 TP3T a 4,91 TP3T<\/td><td>4,21 TP3T a 5,11 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>43<\/td><td>Euribor 3M<\/td><td>3.9%<\/td><td>3,81 TP3T a 4,21 TP3T<\/td><td>3,4% a 4,4%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>44<\/td><td>OIS 5 anos em USD<\/td><td>4.2%<\/td><td>4,11 TP3T a 4,61 TP3T<\/td><td>3,91 TP3T a 4,81 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>45<\/td><td>OIS 10 anos USD<\/td><td>4.0%<\/td><td>4,21 TP3T a 4,71 TP3T<\/td><td>3,81 TP3T a 4,91 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>46<\/td><td>Rendimento impl\u00edcito do futuro do Bund<\/td><td>2.6%<\/td><td>2,81 TP3T a 3,11 TP3T<\/td><td>2,51 TP3T a 3,31 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>47<\/td><td>Futuro UST 10Y<\/td><td>4.2%<\/td><td>4,51 TP3T a 4,81 TP3T<\/td><td>4,01 TP3T a 5,01 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>48<\/td><td>Futuro dourado<\/td><td>3.7%<\/td><td>3,91 TP3T a 4,21 TP3T<\/td><td>3,51 TP3T a 4,51 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>49<\/td><td>Futuro do JGB<\/td><td>0.7%<\/td><td>0,7% a 0,9%<\/td><td>0,61 TP3T a 1,11 TP3T<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>50<\/td><td>Spread de swap 10 anos USD<\/td><td>0.2%<\/td><td>0,1% a 0,3%<\/td><td>0,1% a 0,4%<br><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">50 principais t\u00edtulos e taxas Volumes e locais de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-cm-color-3-color has-cm-color-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-cm-color-1-border-color has-fixed-layout\" style=\"border-width:1px\"><thead><tr><th>#<\/th><th>Instrumento<\/th><th>Volume 2024<\/th><th>Tend\u00eancia para 2025<\/th><th>Perspectivas para 2026<\/th><th>Principais locais<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Tesouro dos EUA Todos<\/td><td>$190tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb Bloomberg<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>Futuros UST<\/td><td>$750tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>CME<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>Swaps de Taxa de Juros<\/td><td>$970tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>Swaps OIS<\/td><td>$850tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>Mercados de recompra<\/td><td>$120tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Governo Europeu<\/td><td>$110tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos alem\u00e3es<\/td><td>$40tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Tesouro do Reino Unido<\/td><td>$30tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Tesouro japon\u00eas<\/td><td>$60tn<\/td><td>Est\u00e1vel<\/td><td>Est\u00e1vel<\/td><td>Tocom<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10<\/td><td>Cr\u00e9dito IG dos EUA<\/td><td>$85tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>MarketAxess<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11<\/td><td>Alto rendimento nos EUA<\/td><td>$50tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12<\/td><td>Ag\u00eancia MBS<\/td><td>$232tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>13<\/td><td>Mercado TBA<\/td><td>$200tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14<\/td><td>CDS<\/td><td>$95tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>ICE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15<\/td><td>Swaps de infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>$120tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16<\/td><td>Futuros dos fundos federais<\/td><td>$300tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>CME<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>17<\/td><td>Futuros SOFR<\/td><td>$500tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>CME<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18<\/td><td>Futuros do eurod\u00f3lar<\/td><td>$600tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>CME<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>19<\/td><td>Futuros Bund<\/td><td>$420tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Eurex<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>20<\/td><td>Futuros Gilt<\/td><td>$180tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>ICE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>21<\/td><td>Futuros JGB<\/td><td>$350tn<\/td><td>Est\u00e1vel<\/td><td>Est\u00e1vel<\/td><td>Tocom<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>22<\/td><td>ETFs de t\u00edtulos corporativos<\/td><td>$90tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Interc\u00e2mbios<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>23<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos Verdes<\/td><td>$432tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>24<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos municipais<\/td><td>$60tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>25<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos da SSA<\/td><td>$70tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>26<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos cobertos<\/td><td>$40tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>27<\/td><td>Mercados FRN<\/td><td>$40tn<\/td><td>Est\u00e1vel<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>28<\/td><td>Mercados monet\u00e1rios<\/td><td>$210tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>29<\/td><td>Moeda forte EM<\/td><td>$55tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>30<\/td><td>EM Moeda local<\/td><td>$48tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>31<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Tesouro<\/td><td>$180tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>32<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos indexados \u00e0 infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>$150tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>33<\/td><td>Futuros de swap<\/td><td>$240tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>CME<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>34<\/td><td>Pools de Repo GC<\/td><td>$70tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>35<\/td><td>Futuros de \u00cdndice de Cr\u00e9dito<\/td><td>$90tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>CME<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>36<\/td><td>Futuros de cr\u00e9dito em euros<\/td><td>$120tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Eurex<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>37<\/td><td>Futuros de Taxa Curta<\/td><td>$500tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>CME<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>38<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos resgat\u00e1veis<\/td><td>$55tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>39<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos lastreados em ativos<\/td><td>$88tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>40<\/td><td>Papel comercial<\/td><td>$95tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>41<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Tesouro STRIPS<\/td><td>$45tn<\/td><td>Est\u00e1vel<\/td><td>Est\u00e1vel<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>42<\/td><td>Op\u00e7\u00f5es de troca<\/td><td>$130tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>43<\/td><td>Swaps de moedas cruzadas<\/td><td>$160tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>44<\/td><td>Swaps de base<\/td><td>$140tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>45<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos com cobertura cambial<\/td><td>$75tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>46<\/td><td>Cr\u00e9dito ESG<\/td><td>$110tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>47<\/td><td>Promo\u00e7\u00f5es Repo<\/td><td>$60tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>48<\/td><td>Letras do Banco Central<\/td><td>$90tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Corretores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>49<\/td><td>Derivativos hipotec\u00e1rios<\/td><td>$120tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>50<\/td><td>Opera\u00e7\u00f5es com spread de curva<\/td><td>$200tn<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>Em ascens\u00e3o<\/td><td>CME Tradeweb<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Sentimento do mercado no final de 2025 para os 50 principais instrumentos<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-cm-color-3-color has-cm-color-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-cm-color-1-border-color has-fixed-layout\" style=\"border-width:1px\"><thead><tr><th>#<\/th><th>Instrumento<\/th><th>Sentimento<\/th><th>Interpreta\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>EUA 2 anos<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Redu\u00e7\u00f5es nas taxas de juros avaliadas com cautela<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>EUA 5 anos<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Incerteza na curva m\u00e9dia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>EUA 10 anos<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Foco no pr\u00eamio de prazo<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>EUA 30 anos<\/td><td>Cauteloso<\/td><td>Preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com o abastecimento<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>Alian\u00e7a Alem\u00e3<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Demanda por ref\u00fagios seguros<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>OAT franc\u00eas<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Sensibilidade fiscal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7<\/td><td>BTP italiano<\/td><td>Cauteloso<\/td><td>Risco pol\u00edtico<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8<\/td><td>Bono espanhol<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Demanda est\u00e1vel<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9<\/td><td>T\u00edtulo do Reino Unido<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Clareza das pol\u00edticas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10<\/td><td>JGB do Jap\u00e3o<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Transi\u00e7\u00e3o pol\u00edtica<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Canad\u00e1<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Macroest\u00e1vel<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos da Austr\u00e1lia<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Modera\u00e7\u00e3o do crescimento<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>13<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos da China<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Vantagem de rendimento<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14<\/td><td>Cr\u00e9dito IG dos EUA<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Balan\u00e7os patrimoniais s\u00f3lidos<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15<\/td><td>Alto rendimento nos EUA<\/td><td>Cauteloso<\/td><td>Risco de ciclo tardio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16<\/td><td>Cr\u00e9dito Euro IG<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Espalhe a disciplina<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>17<\/td><td>Alto rendimento do euro<\/td><td>Cauteloso<\/td><td>Risco de crescimento<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18<\/td><td>Moeda forte EM<\/td><td>Cauteloso<\/td><td>Risco geopol\u00edtico<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>19<\/td><td>EM Moeda local<\/td><td>Cauteloso<\/td><td>Volatilidade cambial<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>20<\/td><td>Ag\u00eancia MBS<\/td><td>Otimista<\/td><td>Compress\u00e3o de spread<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>21<\/td><td>Mercado TBA<\/td><td>Otimista<\/td><td>Atividade hipotec\u00e1ria<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>22<\/td><td>Indexado \u00e0 infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Incerteza inflacion\u00e1ria<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>23<\/td><td>Mercados de recompra<\/td><td>Otimista<\/td><td>Demanda de liquidez<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>24<\/td><td>Receita Federal<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Negocia\u00e7\u00f5es de curva<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>25<\/td><td>OIS<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Fluxos de cobertura<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>26<\/td><td>Futuros SOFR<\/td><td>Otimista<\/td><td>Visibilidade das taxas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>27<\/td><td>Futuros dos fundos federais<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Debate pol\u00edtico<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>28<\/td><td>Futuros Bund<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Orienta\u00e7\u00f5es do BCE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>29<\/td><td>Futuros Gilt<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Curva do Reino Unido<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>30<\/td><td>Futuros JGB<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Pol\u00edtica est\u00e1vel<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>31<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Tesouro<\/td><td>Otimista<\/td><td>Prefer\u00eancia por dinheiro<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>32<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos da SSA<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Demanda institucional<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>33<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos cobertos<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Apoio \u00e0 regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>34<\/td><td>Munis<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Demanda impulsionada por impostos<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>35<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos Verdes<\/td><td>Otimista<\/td><td>Entradas estruturais<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>36<\/td><td>FRNs<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Demanda flutuante<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>37<\/td><td>Mercados monet\u00e1rios<\/td><td>Otimista<\/td><td>Prioridade de liquidez<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>38<\/td><td>CDS<\/td><td>Cauteloso<\/td><td>Cobertura de cr\u00e9dito<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>39<\/td><td>Op\u00e7\u00f5es de troca<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Pre\u00e7os de volatilidade<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>40<\/td><td>Swaps de moedas cruzadas<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Cobertura cambial<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>41<\/td><td>Swaps de base<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Spreads de financiamento<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>42<\/td><td>Negocia\u00e7\u00f5es de Curva<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Valor relativo<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>43<\/td><td>Promo\u00e7\u00f5es Repo<\/td><td>Otimista<\/td><td>Pr\u00eamio de escassez<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>44<\/td><td>Apoiado por ativos<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Tend\u00eancias de consumo<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>45<\/td><td>Papel comercial<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Liquidez corporativa<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>46<\/td><td>T\u00edtulos do Tesouro STRIPS<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Exposi\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 dura\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>47<\/td><td>Swaps de infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Cauteloso<\/td><td>Sensibilidade dos dados<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>48<\/td><td>Futuros de Taxa Curta<\/td><td>Neutro<\/td><td>Dependente de macro<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>49<\/td><td>Cr\u00e9dito ESG<\/td><td>Otimista<\/td><td>Fluxos de aloca\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>50<\/td><td>ETFs de cr\u00e9dito<\/td><td>Neutro Otimista<\/td><td>Ve\u00edculo de liquidez<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Teste de estresse baseado em cen\u00e1rios para carteiras institucionais<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Objetivo deste teste de estresse<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Este teste de estresse foi concebido para avaliar como os mercados globais de t\u00edtulos e taxas de juros poderiam se comportar sob diferentes resultados macroecon\u00f4micos e geopol\u00edticos em 2026. Em vez de prever um \u00fanico caminho, ele avalia v\u00e1rios cen\u00e1rios plaus\u00edveis, estima os impactos sobre os rendimentos e os pre\u00e7os e destaca os canais de transmiss\u00e3o de risco entre t\u00edtulos soberanos, cr\u00e9dito e derivativos de taxas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>O objetivo n\u00e3o \u00e9 a precis\u00e3o, mas a prepara\u00e7\u00e3o. Esses cen\u00e1rios ajudam os investidores a entender onde as carteiras est\u00e3o expostas, onde a diversifica\u00e7\u00e3o pode falhar e onde a opcionalidade se torna valiosa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Suposi\u00e7\u00f5es de base<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Antes dos cen\u00e1rios de estresse, o caso base para 2026 pressup\u00f5e:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A infla\u00e7\u00e3o continua moderada, mas permanece acima dos padr\u00f5es pr\u00e9-pand\u00eamicos<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Os bancos centrais adotam medidas cautelosas e desiguais<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A emiss\u00e3o fiscal continua elevada<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>O risco geopol\u00edtico continua persistente, mas contido<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A liquidez continua estruturalmente forte, mas epis\u00f3dica<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Nesse cen\u00e1rio base, os rendimentos permanecem dentro de uma faixa limitada, com uma remodela\u00e7\u00e3o ativa da curva e volumes de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o elevados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Cen\u00e1rio base: aterragem suave e flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o controlada<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Macronarrativa<\/strong>O crescimento econ\u00f4mico desacelera, mas evita a recess\u00e3o. A infla\u00e7\u00e3o apresenta tend\u00eancia de queda, mas permanece elevada no setor de servi\u00e7os. Os bancos centrais iniciam uma flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o gradual e cautelosa. A pol\u00edtica fiscal continua expansionista, mas control\u00e1vel. As condi\u00e7\u00f5es financeiras se flexibilizam ligeiramente, sem superaquecimento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong><strong>IMPACTO NO MERCADO<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-cm-color-3-color has-cm-color-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-cm-color-1-border-color has-fixed-layout\" style=\"border-width:1px\"><thead><tr><th>Classe de ativos<\/th><th>Mudan\u00e7a prevista para 2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Rendimento do Tesouro dos EUA a 2 anos<\/td><td>Queda de 50 a 75 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rendimento dos t\u00edtulos do Tesouro dos EUA a 10 anos<\/td><td>Queda de 25 a 50 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Curva de rendimento<\/td><td>Aumento moderado da inclina\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spreads de cr\u00e9dito IG dos EUA<\/td><td>Aperte de 10 a 25 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spreads de alto rendimento nos EUA<\/td><td>Plano a ligeiramente mais apertado<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00edtulos da zona do euro<\/td><td>Rendimentos em queda de 20 a 40 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00edtulos perif\u00e9ricos em euros<\/td><td>Est\u00e1vel a ligeiramente mais restrito<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Volatilidade das taxas de juros<\/td><td>Moderados<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Volumes de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Permane\u00e7a elevado<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Implica\u00e7\u00f5es para o portf\u00f3lio<\/strong>: A exposi\u00e7\u00e3o de dura\u00e7\u00e3o apresenta um desempenho positivo. Os vencimentos intermedi\u00e1rios superam os de longa dura\u00e7\u00e3o. As estrat\u00e9gias de carry e roll funcionam bem. O cr\u00e9dito apresenta um desempenho seletivo. Os derivativos s\u00e3o usados principalmente para ajustes finos, e n\u00e3o para prote\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Cen\u00e1rio pessimista: ressurgimento da infla\u00e7\u00e3o e reajuste agressivo dos pre\u00e7os<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Macronarrativa<\/strong>A infla\u00e7\u00e3o se mostra mais persistente devido \u00e0 press\u00e3o salarial, choques energ\u00e9ticos ou perturba\u00e7\u00f5es geopol\u00edticas. Os bancos centrais suspendem a flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o ou sinalizam uma renovada tend\u00eancia de aperto. Os mercados reajustam as taxas terminais para n\u00edveis mais elevados. As preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es fiscais se intensificam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong><strong>IMPACTO NO MERCADO<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-cm-color-3-color has-cm-color-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-cm-color-1-border-color has-fixed-layout\" style=\"border-width:1px\"><thead><tr><th>Classe de ativos<\/th><th>Mudan\u00e7a prevista para 2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Rendimento do Tesouro dos EUA a 2 anos<\/td><td>Aumento de 75 a 125 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rendimento dos t\u00edtulos do Tesouro dos EUA a 10 anos<\/td><td>Aumento de 50 a 100 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Curva de rendimento<\/td><td>Aplanamento do urso<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spreads de cr\u00e9dito IG dos EUA<\/td><td>Ampliar de 25 para 50 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spreads de alto rendimento nos EUA<\/td><td>Ampliar de 75 para 150 pontos-base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00edtulos da zona do euro<\/td><td>Rendimentos aumentam de 40 a 80 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00edtulos perif\u00e9ricos em euros<\/td><td>Aumento significativo do spread<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ponto de equil\u00edbrio da infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Aumentar acentuadamente<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Volatilidade das taxas de juros<\/td><td>Aumenta significativamente<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Volumes de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Aumento repentino nos pre\u00e7os<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Implica\u00e7\u00f5es para o portf\u00f3lio<\/strong>: Os t\u00edtulos de longo prazo sofrem. Os instrumentos de curto prazo e os ativos de taxa flutuante apresentam desempenho superior. Os t\u00edtulos indexados \u00e0 infla\u00e7\u00e3o apresentam desempenho superior aos nominais. Os custos de hedge aumentam. O posicionamento ativo na curva torna-se cr\u00edtico. O risco de liquidez aumenta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Cen\u00e1rio de estresse defensivo: aterrissagem for\u00e7ada e recess\u00e3o global<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Narrativa macro:<\/strong> A desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica acelera e se transforma em recess\u00e3o. Os lucros das empresas enfraquecem. Os mercados de trabalho enfraquecem rapidamente. Os bancos centrais reduzem as taxas de juros de forma agressiva. O sentimento de risco se deteriora. Os d\u00e9ficits fiscais aumentam ainda mais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong><strong>IMPACTO NO MERCADO<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-cm-color-3-color has-cm-color-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-cm-color-1-border-color has-fixed-layout\" style=\"border-width:1px\"><thead><tr><th>Classe de ativos<\/th><th>Mudan\u00e7a prevista para 2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Rendimento do Tesouro dos EUA a 2 anos<\/td><td>Queda de 150 a 250 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rendimento dos t\u00edtulos do Tesouro dos EUA a 10 anos<\/td><td>Queda de 100 a 200 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Curva de rendimento<\/td><td>Aumento acentuado<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spreads de cr\u00e9dito IG dos EUA<\/td><td>Ampliar de 40 para 80 pontos-base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spreads de alto rendimento nos EUA<\/td><td>Ampliar de 200 para 400 pontos-base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00edtulos da zona do euro<\/td><td>Forte recupera\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00edtulos perif\u00e9ricos em euros<\/td><td>Misto devido ao estresse fiscal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ag\u00eancia MBS<\/td><td>Superar as empresas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Volatilidade das taxas de juros<\/td><td>Inicialmente alto, depois diminui<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Volumes de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Aumento durante a fase de risco<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Implica\u00e7\u00f5es para o portf\u00f3lio<\/strong>: A dura\u00e7\u00e3o de alta qualidade torna-se a principal prote\u00e7\u00e3o. Os t\u00edtulos do governo superam os ativos de risco. A sele\u00e7\u00e3o de cr\u00e9dito \u00e9 fundamental. A prefer\u00eancia pela liquidez predomina. Os derivativos s\u00e3o usados para prote\u00e7\u00e3o, e n\u00e3o para carry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Cen\u00e1rio de risco extremo: crise fiscal e choque de risco soberano<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Macronarrativa<\/strong>Os mercados perdem a confian\u00e7a na sustentabilidade fiscal de uma ou mais economias importantes. Os leil\u00f5es de t\u00edtulos enfraquecem. As ag\u00eancias de classifica\u00e7\u00e3o de risco agem. Os bancos centrais enfrentam restri\u00e7\u00f5es de credibilidade. Os pr\u00eamios de risco aumentam estruturalmente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong><strong>IMPACTO NO MERCADO<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-cm-color-3-color has-cm-color-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-cm-color-1-border-color has-fixed-layout\" style=\"border-width:1px\"><thead><tr><th>Classe de ativos<\/th><th>Mudan\u00e7a prevista para 2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Rendimentos soberanos de longo prazo<\/td><td>Aumento de 100 a 200 pontos base<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Curva de rendimento<\/td><td>Aumento acentuado<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Espalhamentos perif\u00e9ricos<\/td><td>Alargamento extremo<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00edtulos de ref\u00fagio seguro<\/td><td>Misto, dependendo do emissor<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mercados de cr\u00e9dito<\/td><td>Reajuste generalizado<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mercados de recompra<\/td><td>Epis\u00f3dios de estresse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spreads de swap<\/td><td>Altamente vol\u00e1til<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Liquidez<\/td><td>Fragmentado<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Volumes de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Pico com profundidade insuficiente<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Implica\u00e7\u00f5es para o portf\u00f3lio<\/strong>A diversifica\u00e7\u00e3o geogr\u00e1fica \u00e9 mais importante do que a dura\u00e7\u00e3o. A sele\u00e7\u00e3o soberana torna-se cr\u00edtica. Os derivativos e a gest\u00e3o de garantias s\u00e3o essenciais. O dinheiro e as letras recuperam seu valor estrat\u00e9gico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Cen\u00e1rio de estresse entre ativos: escalada geopol\u00edtica e choque energ\u00e9tico<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Macronarrativa<\/strong>: Uma escalada geopol\u00edtica perturba o abastecimento energ\u00e9tico ou as rotas comerciais globais. As expectativas inflacion\u00e1rias aumentam, mesmo com o abrandamento do crescimento. Os bancos centrais enfrentam uma paralisia pol\u00edtica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>IMPACTO NO MERCADO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-cm-color-3-color has-cm-color-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-cm-color-1-border-color has-fixed-layout\" style=\"border-width:1px\"><thead><tr><th>Classe de ativos<\/th><th>Mudan\u00e7a prevista para 2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Rendimentos de curto prazo<\/td><td>Vol\u00e1til<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rendimentos de longo prazo<\/td><td>Press\u00e3o ascendente<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00edtulos indexados \u00e0 infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Desempenho muito superior<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spreads de cr\u00e9dito<\/td><td>Ampliar em todos os setores<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00edtulos EM<\/td><td>Desempenho significativamente abaixo do esperado<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Volatilidade das taxas de juros<\/td><td>Elevado<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Swaps de moedas cruzadas<\/td><td>Estresse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Volumes de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Permane\u00e7a alto<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Implica\u00e7\u00f5es para o portf\u00f3lio:<\/strong> A prote\u00e7\u00e3o contra a infla\u00e7\u00e3o torna-se essencial. A dura\u00e7\u00e3o nominal apresenta um desempenho inferior. \u00c9 necess\u00e1ria uma cobertura ativa das taxas e das commodities. A gest\u00e3o da liquidez \u00e9 fundamental.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Resumo dos riscos em cen\u00e1rios cruzados<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-cm-color-3-color has-cm-color-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-cm-color-1-border-color has-fixed-layout\" style=\"border-width:1px\"><thead><tr><th>Fator de risco<\/th><th>Cen\u00e1rios mais sens\u00edveis<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Risco de dura\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Cen\u00e1rios 2 e 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risco de cr\u00e9dito<\/td><td>Cen\u00e1rios 3 e 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risco de infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Cen\u00e1rios 2 e 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risco de liquidez<\/td><td>Cen\u00e1rios 3 e 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risco de Curva<\/td><td>Todos os cen\u00e1rios<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risco geopol\u00edtico<\/td><td>Cen\u00e1rios 4 e 5<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Perspectivas finais para 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A mensagem principal do nosso teste de estresse \u00e9 clara. Os t\u00edtulos est\u00e3o de volta como um ativo gerador de retorno, mas o risco n\u00e3o \u00e9 mais unidimensional. Dura\u00e7\u00e3o, forma da curva, localiza\u00e7\u00e3o geogr\u00e1fica e liquidez s\u00e3o fatores igualmente importantes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Os mercados de t\u00edtulos e taxas em 2026 s\u00e3o definidos pelo realismo, e n\u00e3o por extremos. Os rendimentos s\u00e3o estruturalmente mais elevados, a volatilidade \u00e9 persistente e a liquidez \u00e9 valiosa. Os t\u00edtulos voltaram a desempenhar o seu papel de instrumentos geradores de rendimento, mas tamb\u00e9m exigem uma gest\u00e3o ativa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Para os investidores institucionais, o sucesso em 2026 vir\u00e1 da compreens\u00e3o das rela\u00e7\u00f5es macroecon\u00f4micas, da gest\u00e3o da dura\u00e7\u00e3o e do risco da curva e do uso de derivativos e plataformas eletr\u00f4nicas para navegar em um mundo moldado pela geopol\u00edtica, pela expans\u00e3o fiscal e pela evolu\u00e7\u00e3o das estruturas dos bancos centrais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Em 2026, os portf\u00f3lios resilientes ser\u00e3o aqueles que:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Evite concentra\u00e7\u00f5es de longa dura\u00e7\u00e3o sem prote\u00e7\u00f5es<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Use derivativos de forma proativa, em vez de reativa<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Saldo transportado com convexidade<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trate o risco soberano como din\u00e2mico, e n\u00e3o est\u00e1tico<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Manter a liquidez como um ativo estrat\u00e9gico<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c0 medida que 2026 se aproxima, os mercados de renda fixa est\u00e3o passando de um ciclo hist\u00f3rico de aperto para um per\u00edodo de recalibra\u00e7\u00e3o estrat\u00e9gica. A infla\u00e7\u00e3o moderou-se em rela\u00e7\u00e3o aos picos anteriores, mas for\u00e7as estruturais como a geopol\u00edtica, a rigidez do mercado de trabalho, a seguran\u00e7a energ\u00e9tica e a expans\u00e3o fiscal sustentada impedem o retorno ao ambiente de taxas ultrabaixas da \u00faltima d\u00e9cada. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":978,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[113],"class_list":["post-972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis","tag-bonds"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bonds and Rates Trading Outlook 2026 - Levrata | Global Trading, Markets &amp; Investment Intelligence Magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.levrata.com\/pt\/analise-de-mercado\/perspectivas-para-o-mercado-de-titulos-e-taxas-em-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bonds and Rates Trading Outlook 2026 - Levrata | Global Trading, Markets &amp; Investment Intelligence Magazine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As 2026 approaches, fixed income markets are transitioning from a historic tightening cycle into a period of strategic recalibration. 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